We live in an Age of Uncertainty. Not only because of global threats to societies, but many face unprecedented insecurity on a personal level, especially the younger generations. None of us knows what will happen, and we may face it. And that’s the first lesson in making predictions: Don’t predict. That is, don’t just guess what will happen. Instead, embrace uncertainty and turn it into an opportunity. Here’s how:
Think Fast and Slow with Uncertainty
Uncertainty is “awareness of ignorance.” A personal relationship with anything we don’t know—we may have no knowledge of what is happening at the time, or what will happen in the future. Psychologist Daniel Kahneman discovered two broad ways of thinking; using our quick reaction, unconsciousness, gut, or moving slowly and deliberately into a problem. It is especially good to think quickly about the future: when we are driving or choosing a movie to watch. But with big decisions, it’s better to take our time.
Assembling Possible Futures
The first step to thinking a little about the future is to visualize the ways things might play out. Organizations can create scenarios that show both optimistic and pessimistic outcomes, and they can use a “red team” to deliberately think about what could go wrong. The UK Ministry of Defense even employs science fiction writers to bring serious thought to possible futures.
Individually, you can experience the “red group mentality,” where you criticize our common perception, whether you’re the type who tends to look on the bright side, or who expects the worst.
The Problem with Using Words to Describe Uncertainty
Vague statements about uncertainty are easily misinterpreted. It is easy to say that something “might” or “could” or that “might” happen. But what do these words actually mean? In 1961, the CIA was planning the Bay of Pigs invasion in Cuba to overthrow the revolutionary government of Fidel Castro, but the Joint Chiefs of Staff considered the chance of success to be only 30 percent—that is, a 70 percent chance of failure.
This was reported as a “fair” chance, which they thought would be interpreted as “not very good.” But President Kennedy read the word with hope and authorized the invasion, which was a major coup and pushed Cuba further into Soviet influence.
Putting Numbers to Our Ignorance
Events such as the Bay of Pigs disaster have encouraged intelligence agencies to match words with hard numbers. For example, if someone in the intelligence service in the UK says that an event is “likely,” this has the official meaning of a probability of between 55 and 75 percent. A similar estimate is used in climate science, where a “highly probable” event means 90 to 95 percent.
As individuals, we may try to measure possible futures by their odds, and give them a negative dimension, saying that getting a job is a “two out of 10” event. With some imagination, we can think of all our future leads shooting like spaghetti; and for about 20 percent of these, you will get a job.
What Makes a Good Forecast?
“Great prognosticators” can assess good future probabilities, where “good” means (a) “estimated,” so that when they say “70 percent chance,” those events occur about 70 percent of the time, and (b) they “discriminate,” so that higher probabilities are often given to events that occur. They are generally open to new information and enjoy working in groups, have an understanding of their thinking and all their biases, and have the humility to admit uncertainty, admit mistakes, and change their minds. They are like Isaiah Berlin’s so-called “foxes,” willing to adapt to new evidence, rather than “hedgehogs,” stuck to one way of thinking.
Anonymous admits
Donald Rumsfeld immortalized “things known, unknown, and unknowable”—things we could not imagine and had never imagined. If we accept this possibility, this is known as “deep uncertainty,” where we can’t even list possible futures, or we have a red group mentality. Rumsfeld did not, however, include “known unknowns”—those assumptions we make without thinking. This can be a very dangerous delusion, and that is why we need important friends to help us out of our fixed tramlines.
Preparing for a Surprise
In 1650, Oliver Cromwell’s army was encamped outside Edinburgh, and he was trying to persuade the Kirk of Scotland to withdraw its support for the return of Charles II. Cromwell wrote, “Does it therefore agree infallibly with the Word of God, all that it says?” I beg you, in the bowels of Christ, consider that you may be going astray.” This appeal was ignored, and Cromwell soundly defeated the Scots at the Battle of Dunbar.
“The rule of Cromwell” means that you have to think like a fox, and always have the humility to consider the possibility of making a mistake. By entertaining just the slightest chance of being wrong, you can quickly adapt to a new and surprising experience.
The Role of Luck
Things may or may not go well for you, mostly because of things beyond your control, i.e., luck. Philosophers have identified three main types. Constitutive luck: who you were born into, your time and place in history, your parents, your genes, your built-in characteristics, and your early upbringing. This is very important—you need to make the best of the hand you were born with. Luck of the situation: being in the right place at the right time, or the wrong place at the wrong time. Resultant luck: how things happened to work out for you at the time.
But it’s not all out of your control—”lucky” people take advantage of opportunities, expect good things, and can handle bad things.
Living with Uncertainty
Uncertainty is part of being human, and few of us want to know what we’ll get for Christmas, what the outcome of a taped football game will be, or even, if it were to happen, when we’ll die. Uncertainty is inevitable, and we may react to that awareness of not knowing in a variety of ways—we may feel anxious or excited, hopeful or fearful, depending on the circumstances and our tolerance for not knowing.
We cannot avoid uncertainty. But with a little thought we might be able to accept it, be humbled by it, and enjoy it.
